March 2007
Monthly Archive
Thu 29 Mar 2007
BEIJING (XFN-ASIA) - Commerce Minister Bo Xilai said the Doha Round of trade talks appear to be at a “dead end” because of the US and EU.
Speaking to reporters at a news conference, Bo said that the talks have addressed issues of concern to developed countries such as the protection of intellectual property rights, but he noted that progress has not been made on farm aid.
“Developing countries are most concerned about farm trade and services,” Bo said.
He added that it was developed countries such as the US and members of the EU that were impeding progress.
The talks under the World Trade Organization (WTO) were suspended last year amid a bitter dispute between Europe and the US over farm tariffs and subsidies.
Bo said China has already opened up much of its service sector to the outside world, adding that Beijing does not expect special treatment from the WTO.
“We do not expect to enjoy a free lunch at the WTO,” he said.
will.davies@afxasia.com
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Thu 29 Mar 2007
This column was originally published on RealMoney on Feb. 16 at 2:09 p.m. EST. It’s being republished as a bonus for TheStreet.com readers. For more information about subscribing to RealMoney, please click here.
It took more than a decade before any major label agreed to let unprotected MP3s to be distributed on the Internet. But a few weeks ago, the indie-label consortium, which accounts for about a third of all record sales, agreed to let MySpace.com sell MP3s.
Meanwhile, Steve Jobs is finally saying that Apple (AAPL) wants to sell unprotected MP3s on iTunes. I guess he got tired of the fact that 97% of music that is loaded onto iPods is estimated to be not from iTunes.
The minute iTunes goes MP3, its sales will explode higher. Consumers aren’t stupid; they know that what they supposedly “buy” on iTunes isn’t really theirs, as Apple and the labels put so much restriction on the usage of iTunes content. Ownership rights matter — not just for the label, but also for the end users, after all. The total disregard of end users by labels and their distribution networks has hampered sales badly. Because the iPod has become the de facto standard of music players anyway, Apple is ready and excited to move away from its closed network.
The major record labels, including Edgar Bronfman and his Warner Music Group (WMG) , continue to flail about and fight the empowerment of their fans. What really blows the mind is that music sales are showing accelerating double-digit declines right this very minute, yet the labels keep pursuing the same policies as they have for the past decade, which obviously has completely failed already. Look, they really can’t stop the revolution! And as I told Aaron Task last week, there’s 100% chance that we’ll all be buying unprotected MP3s from iTunes, Wal-Mart.com (WMT) , Microsoft’s (MSFT) Zune and so on by the end of 2008.
Now let’s apply some of this logic to video. Viacom (VIA) and other studios/networks are playing hardball with the big guns at Google (GOOG) . The studios say they’re upset because YouTube isn’t trying hard enough to keep their content off its site, even as YouTube says it easily can and will start policing its content much better if the studios would only sign on the dotted line to legalize it.
That’s all just posturing. The studios recognize the tremendous value in the ability to distribute their content on demand to anyone with a browser rather than having to go through cable and satellite broadcast networks, movie theatres and DVD retail outlets. The fact that users can easily now upload and organize that video content for other users is an absolute dream situation for these studios. After all, do you really think that the tens of thousands of people who currently control how that professional content gets programmed, broadcasted and otherwise distributed can compete with the 1.5 billion people who now can do that for themselves and other fans on ever new platforms?
No, they can’t stop that revolution, either. But unlike the idiot record labels that never even seriously tried to create a legal, monetized P2P distribution outlet for their content, the studios are indeed in discussions about figuring out how to build a user-organized and fan-monitored YouTube-like site.
The key here is that when the studios do that, they’ll have to allow other sites like YouTube to do so also. Indeed, we designed BoomRevolution.com to become the de facto standard for that user-organized and fan-monitored professional content movement from the start. I’ve learned a lot from dealing with the studios and their reps, and they are really aggressive about figuring this new movement out.
There will be many other distribution outlets that empower fans in ever more ways that will crop up as the studios finish embracing the revolution. And that’s the upshot: more content, more control, more distribution outlets to more people, all of which can and will be monitored and policed by fans and end users. That’s why I say that the entropy of these Revolutionomics is so virtuous. And more to the point, it’s why I continue to call content king, and this year I’ve started scaling into some of the best content owners like Disney (DIS) .
Mon 26 Mar 2007
WASHINGTON (AP) - The nation’s manufacturing sector expanded in February, reversing the prior month’s contraction, a trade group said Thursday.
The Institute for Supply Management, based in Tempe, Ariz., said its manufacturing index registered 52.3 in February, above the January reading of 49.3 and Wall Street’s expectation of 50.
A reading above 50 indicates growth for the sector. However, the data appeared to provide only marginal solace to investors, who have become skittish about a slowing economy in the U.S. and in China.
Following an initial decline of 200 points Thursday morning, the Dow industrials recovered somewhat after the ISM data were released, declining 60 points, or 0.5 percent, to 12,208. The technology-focused Nasdaq composite index fell 19 points, or 0.8 percent, to 2,397, while the broader S&P 500 index sank 6 points, or 0.5 percent to 1,401.
Also on Thursday, the U.S. government reported that personal incomes rose in January at the fastest clip in a year, while construction activity fell sharply as the nation’s housing industry continued to suffer.
The February manufacturing data continued an alternating pattern for the ISM index, which showed contraction in November, then rebounded in December, only to fall back again in January.
The ISM survey found that new orders, production, and employment all expanded, while order backlogs also grew.
“February proved to be a good month in the manufacturing sector,” Norbert J. Ore, chair of the ISM, said.
The ISM report said that employment in the manufacturing sector rose in February, with a reading of 51.1 compared with 49.5 in January.
The new orders index rose substantially to 54.9 from 50.3 in January, while the production index increased to 54.1 from 49.6.
The order backlogs index jumped to 51.5, from 43.5 in January.
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Mon 26 Mar 2007
Action Insight | Written by ActionForex.com | Mar 02 07 06:59 GMT |
Forex Daily Technical Report No Inspiration from Japanese Data
The Japanese yen turned sideway after a mixed bag of data from Japan failed to trigger further rally. On the one hand, household spending rebounded strongly by 0.6% in Jan, much better than expectation of -0.4% fall. Unemployment rate also dropped from 4.1% to 4.0% but real wages were down a further 1% yoy. On the other hand, CPI inflation in Jan remains at 0%, dragging the yoy rate from 0.3% to 0.0% too. There is a chance that Japan is heading to another mild bout of deflation over the coming months.
Technically speaking, dollar’s boost from stronger than expected ISM Manufacturing index was mild only. EUR/USD and USD/CHF were both kept by near term support and resistance which makes the price actions from 1.3258 and 1.2142 corrective. GBP/USD edged lower by is still bounded in tight range. Also, while EUR/JPY remains weak and is set to have another fall today, EUR/CHF seems stabilized. The correlations between the pairs are at a very interesting point now.
Data in the upcoming sessions include Eurozone PPI in Jan and U of Michigan consumer confidence survey as well as Canadian Q4 GDP. EUR/USD
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3148; (P) 1.3193; (R1) 1.3232; http://www.actionforex.com/forex_analysis_and_forecasts/pivot_points/pivot_points_summary_200603205734/
EUR/USD’s correction from 1.3258 has reached as low as 1.3153 before stabilizing after drawing support from 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 1.6134). With 1.3149 support remains intact, further rally is still in favor after finishing the current correction. Break of 1.3237 resistance will indicate that such correction has completed and rise from 1.2911 has resumed with a retest of 1.3258 high first, and then 1.3296 resistance.
However, with bearish divergence conditions in 4 hours MACD and RSI, break of 1.3149 will indicate the whole rise from 1.2911 has possibly completed with five waves up to 1.3258 and should bring pull back to 1.3078 support or below.
In the bigger picture, the corrective fall from 1.3364 has completed with three waves down to 1.2865. With EUR/USD staying within medium term rising channel (lower channel line at 1.2830 now), medium term up trend from 1.1639 is still in progress. Current rally is being treated as resumption of this up trend. Break of 1.3296 resistance will add more credence to this view and should push EUR/USD to a new high above 1.3364. However, a drop below 1.2939 will dampen this view and indicate the correction from 1.3364 is likely still in progress instead.
Also, with bearish divergence condition in weekly MACD and RSI, a medium term top could be around the corner. Upside of this medium term rally could be limited by resistance zone of 1.3668 (04 high) and 100% projection of 1.1639 to 1.2978 from 1.2483 at 1.3822. But clear reversal pattern or a break of the lower channel line is needed to indicate a medium term top is formed, otherwise, further rise is still in favor.
GBP/USD
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.9540; (P) 1.9595; (R1) 1.9636; http://www.actionforex.com/forex_analysis_and_forecasts/pivot_points/pivot_points_summary_200603205734/
Cable weakens mildly into European session but after all, it’s still kept inside established range of 1.9429 and 1.9679. As discussed before, with 4 hours MACD staying below signal line, the corrective rise from 1.9429 should have completed at 1.9672 already. Hence, further decline should be seen to retest 1.9429 support. Above 1.9672 is needed to indicate this rebound from 1.9429 has resumed for 1.9731 resistance.
Also, previous break of rising trend line support (1.8517 to 1.8834, now at 1.9766) indicates the rally from 1.8517 should have already completed at 1.9913. Hence, further correction should still be seen as long as cable stays below 1.9731 resistance. Below 1.9429 will indicate corrective fall from 1.9913 has resumed for 1.9237/61 cluster support (23.6% retracement of 1.7047 to 1.9913 at 1.9237).
In the bigger picture, bearish divergence conditions are being displayed in weekly RSI, daily MACD and RSI already, suggesting that the whole up trend from 1.7047 might have completed before reaching mentioned 2.0106 cluster resistance (1992 high, 100% projection of 17047 to 1.9024 from 1.8090 at 2.0067). Focus is still on 1.9237/61 cluster support. Decisive break of 1.9237/61 cluster support will add much weight to the case that whole medium term up trend from 1.7047 has already completed much deeper decline should be seen towards next cluster support at 1.8834 (38.2% retracement of 1.7047 to 1.9913 at 1.8818) first.
Strong rebound from 1.9237/61 cluster support or break of 1.9731 resistance will indicate that the corrective fall from 1.9913 is merely correction to the rise from 1.8517 only and cable could make another high above 1.9913 and attempt to meeting 2.0106 cluster resistance before having a medium term reversal.
USD/CHF
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2163; (P) 1.2198; (R1) 1.2252; http://www.actionforex.com/forex_analysis_and_forecasts/pivot_points/pivot_points_summary_200603205734/.
USD/CHF rebounds strongly to as high as 1.2246 after failing to break through 1.2142 support yesterday. At this point, since upside of the consolidation from 1.2142 is still limited below mentioned 1.2257 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement from 1.2436 to 1.2142 at 1.2254), we’d expect such consolidation from 1.2142 to be brief and fall from 1.2436 should resume sooner rather than later. sustained break of 1.2143 support will encourage further decline towards next fibo support of 78.6% retracement of 1.1878 to 1.2571 at 1.2211) first.
On the upside, even though further recovery towards 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 1.2288) cannot be ruled, a break above 1.2231 resistance is needed to turn short term focus back to upside. Otherwise, further decline is still expected to follow, only after an extended consolidation.
In the bigger picture, previous break of 1.2374 support should have completed a head and shoulder top formation (with ls: 1.2547, h: 1.2571, rs: 1.2550) and should be an important indication of reversal. Firm break of 1.2268 resistance turned support confirms that the whole rally from 1.1878 has completed after failing to break through mentioned medium term falling trend line (1.3283 to 1.2760). Also, weekly MACD will still be kept negative with daily MACD staying below signal line. This suggest that whole down trend from 1.3283 is still in force. In such case, break of 1.2143 fibo resistance should bring deeper decline towards 1.1878 (06 low).
USD/JPY
Daily Pivots: (S1) 116.74; (P) 117.80; (R1) 118.65; http://www.actionforex.com/forex_analysis_and_forecasts/pivot_points/pivot_points_summary_200603205734/
USD/JPY recovers mildly after the fall from 121.61 has extended to as low as 116.94 yesterday. As discussed before, intraday bias remains on the downside as long as USD/JPY stays below 118.06 support turned resistance and USD/JPY is still expected to head towards medium term rising channel support (now at 116.80). Above 118.06 will turn intraday outlook consolidative first but a break above 118.84 resistance is needed to indicate a low is formed, otherwise, interim consolidation should be brief and fall should resume sooner rather than later.
In the bigger picture, much focus will be on the mentioned medium term rising channel (108.99, 114.41, 117.87, lower channel at 116.80 now). Sustained break of this channel will indicate that the whole medium term up trend form 108.99 has already completed at 122.17. This will swing favors back to the case that such medium term rally is merely part of a large scale consolidation that started at 121.38. And deeper decline should at least be seen to below 114.41 support first with possibility of further fall to retest 108.99 low.
However, strong rebound from this medium term rising channel will save the case that this rally from 108.99 is still in force and another high above 122.17 resistance cannot be ruled out. . A strong break above 118.84 resistance will be the first warning of such case and turn short term focus back to the upside to 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 119.44) first.
Forex News Digest
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601083&sid=axB5IunKL1oc&refer=currency
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601083&sid=ajIp5eUiSkPo&refer=currency
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601083&sid=awNARxSrIeL8&refer=currency
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601083&sid=aSKcemvaX5Dg&refer=currency
http://c.moreover.com/click/here.pl?r828974444
Fri, 2 Mar 2007 03:18:00 GMT from Finance Tech Online
http://c.moreover.com/click/here.pl?r828950061
Fri, 2 Mar 2007 02:48:00 GMT from Reuters
http://c.moreover.com/click/here.pl?r828848938
Fri, 2 Mar 2007 01:02:00 GMT from Bloomberg
http://c.moreover.com/click/here.pl?r828832387
Fri, 2 Mar 2007 00:47:00 GMT from Reuters
http://c.moreover.com/click/here.pl?r828822869
Fri, 2 Mar 2007 00:37:00 GMT from Reuters
http://c.moreover.com/click/here.pl?r828810570
Fri, 2 Mar 2007 00:24:00 GMT from Reuters
http://www.actionforex.com/latest_news/latest_news/forex_news_20060323537/ Economic Indicators Update
GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:30 JPY Japan Household spending Jan 0.60% -0.40% -1.90%
23:30 JPY Japan CPI M/M Jan 0.00% 0.10% -0.10%
23:30 JPY Japan CPI Y/Y Jan 0.00% 0.00% 0.10%
23:30 JPY Japan Unemployment rate Jan 4.00% 4.10% 4.10%
10:00 EUR Eurozone PPI M/M Jan 0.10% 0.00%
10:00 EUR Eurozone PPI Y/Y Jan 2.90% 4.10%
13:30 CAD Canada GDP M/M Dec 0.40% 0.20%
13:30 CAD Canada GDP annualised Q/Q Q4 1.10% 1.70%
15:00 USD U. of Michigan survey Feb 95 96.9
http://www.actionforex.com/general_information/forex_newsletters/forex_newsletter_200507301487/
Mon 26 Mar 2007
Asian shares, whose volatility this week has weighed heavily on the U.S. market, traded in a wide range overnight, with one of the hardest hit being the Nikkei 225 in Tokyo, down 1.4% to close at 17,218.
However, China’s stocks firmed. The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 advanced 1.4% to 2509, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng tacked on half a percent to end at 19,442.
Also on the upside, Vietnam rose 2.2%, and Jakarta was fractionally higher. Sri Lanka’s market rose, as well.
Taiwan’s Taiex slipped 0.1% to 7671, and South Korea’s Kospi edged lower by 0.2% to 1414. The BSE Sensex in India dropped 2.1% to 12,886, and Singapore’s Straits Times Index surrendered 0.5% to 3079.
Stocks in Europe were generally weaker. London’s FTSE 100 was losing 0.3%, Frankfurt’s Xetra DAX gave up 0.9%, and the Paris Cac 40 was lower by 0.8%.
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