finance and investing


Regular health insurance and Medicare generally don’t help you pay for nonmedical needs that can arise when you’re ill or recovering. And those needs can arise more often as you progress into your golden years.

The insurance industry calls those needs activities of daily living. They include getting dressed, eating, washing and going to the bathroom. The elderly and frail sometimes need help performing those tasks.

Often labeled custodial care, that’s what long-term care insurance specializes in. LTC insurance can also pick up where time limits on Medicare or regular insurance cut off their coverage.

And LTC insurance can cover you before you’re even eligible for Medicare at age 65.

The sooner you buy it, the cheaper it will be. “If you wait until age 70, you can pay triple the premium you’d pay as a 50-year-old,” said Jerry Miccolis, senior financial adviser at Brinton Eaton Associates, a financial planning firm in Morristown, N.J.

Even in your 50s, LTC insurance can be pricey. But there are ways to shave costs.

Say a hypothetical Joan Jones, age 55, is shopping for coverage. She wants a top-of-the-line policy. That could include:

A daily benefit of $200 a day, if Jones needs care.

Coverage that will pay benefits for as long as she needs care. That could last the rest of her life.

A 5% compound annual adjustment for inflation. So the initial $200 daily benefit would be around $400 when Jones is 69.

A 30-day so-called elimination period. With this feature, Jones would pay for 30 days of care herself. Then the insurance benefits would start.

Miccolis says such a policy would cost nearly $7,000 a year.

If Jones wants to trim that bill, the biggest single cut would come from trimming how long the policy pays a benefit. Suppose she buys a policy that will pay benefits for up to three years instead of a lifetime policy. That would cut her annual premium to $3,000 from $7,000.

Tactical Trims

And three years is often enough. “Among people over 65 who are in nursing homes, half will leave within three months,” Miccolis said.

For the other half, the average stay is 2 1/2 years.

But people with dementia, for instance, tend to stay longer. So you might want to get more coverage if that’s in your family history.

A policy providing benefits for, say, five or 10 years costs more than a three-year policy. But it would still be cheaper than lifetime coverage.

Another way to save costs is to change the formula for inflation adjustments. You can choose simple rather than compound increases.

Say Jones picks a 5% simple inflation adjustment. Her $200 daily benefit would go up $10 a day each year. Jones would have a $340 daily benefit after 14 years.

A 5% simple cost of living allowance (COLA) would cut the premium on the top-of-the-line policy from $7,000 to $4,500 a year.

Miccolis says that a simple COLA might work best for people 70 or older. Odds are that they have fewer years for the gap between a simple and a compound COLA to cost a lot.

In your 50s, a compound COLA might make sense. And you can cut costs by taking a lower daily benefit to start with.

Some LTC policies offer a so-called future purchase option. That gives you a chance to buy extra coverage every two or three years, without taking a physical exam.

Yet another budget move is to take a longer elimination period. You might choose a 90-day rather than a 30-day wait for benefits.

That’s like taking a higher deductible for regular medical. You might pay more for any needed care before the coverage kicks in.

But you’ll pay lower yearly premiums. Taking a 90-day elimination period instead of a 30-day cuts the cost of a $7,000 top-of-the-line policy to around $5,750.

And you don’t have to limit yourself to one cost-cutter. Say Jones uses all the above suggestions. She buys a $200 daily benefit, three years of coverage, a simple COLA and a 90-day elimination period.

Instead of $7,000 a year for a top-of-the-line policy, her annual premium would be less than $2,000.

And Jones may decide that she doesn’t really need to start with a $200 daily benefit. That depends on where she might need care.

Balancing Benefits

In Los Angeles, the average cost of a private room in a nursing home was $215 a day in 2007, according to a survey by MetLife. In Boston, the average was $297.

Jones might plan to live in Florida after retiring. The average daily room cost in Miami is $211. In Jacksonville, it’s $188.

Jones might cut back on the daily benefit she buys. A policy with a $180 daily benefit, for example, costs 10% less than one with a $200 benefit.

The more LTC costs you expect to be able to pay from your own assets, the lower the daily benefit you’ll need and the less LTC insurance will cost.

Updated from 2:28 p.m. EST

Weekend statements that suggested Saudi Arabia wasn’t overly concerned with the decline in oil prices put modest pressure on crude futures Monday.

Benchmark contracts for light, sweet crude closed down $1.41 at $54.01 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The drop in oil led other energy contracts lower, as well.

Natural gas futures shed 26 cents to $6.92 per million British thermal units. Heating oil lost 4 cents at $1.55 a gallon, as did gasoline to $1.44 a gallon.

“Saudi oil minister Ali al-Naimi seems to be implying that $50 a barrel oil prices are fine with OPEC,” says Jason Schenker, an economist at Wachovia in Charlotte, N.C. Press accounts of al-Naimi’s statements indicated that Saudi Arabia would be comfortable with “moderate” oil prices.

Although Saudi Arabia is only one member of the OPEC oil cartel, it wields a disproportionate influence on the market because it’s the biggest exporter and it sits on huge reserves.

“Ali al-Naimi is the Ben Bernanke of OPEC,” says Schenker, meaning that when he speaks people listen.

One factor that could boost prices over the next few sessions is the impact of an OPEC-mandated output reduction of 500,000 barrels a day that’s due to start in February. How successful it will ultimately be remains to be seen, as previous cut plans have been at least partially ignored by OPEC member countries.

Milton Ezrati, a senior economist at Lord Abbett, says the recent drop in prices from more than $70 a barrel last summer may be due to the influence of speculators, and he warns of a possible overshoot to the downside.

“Looking forward from this most recent adjustment, there is, of course, a good chance that today’s speculative flight from oil could bring prices down even further,” he says.

Turning to the oil patch, RBC Capital Markets slashed its target price on oil-field services company Halliburton (HAL) to $36 a share from $50. Traders marked down prices 1.3%.

Goldman Sachs dinged shares of electricity stock Energy East (EAS) down to a sell rating from neutral, sending shares 0.4% lower. Wachovia downgraded Berry Petroleum (BRY) to a market perform rating from outperform. The shares shed 1.8%.

AG Edwards trimmed back its stock price target on Occidental Petroleum (OXY) to $55 a share from $59. The shares were 0.8% lower.

The U.S. Oil (USO) exchange-traded fund and the iPath Goldman Sachs Crude Oil Index (OIL) ETF each lost more than 2.5%.

Major producers Exxon Mobil (XOM) and BP (BP) fell, while Chevron (CVX) edged higher.

In market corrections, defensive stocks become popular choices. It’s only natural. Defensive stocks lose less than the overall market.

At least that’s the way it’s supposed to be.

But in recent years, the old playbook on so-called defensive plays has changed.

Utilities, for instance, don’t act much like utilities anymore.

Since late October 2002, when the bear market bottomed, IBD’s Utility-Electric Power industry group and Utility-Gas Distribution group have outperformed the Nasdaq.

That little fact could win some bar bets.

While the Nasdaq gained about 74% in that period, the electric utilities gained 90% and the gas utilities advanced 82%. Only the Utility-Water Supply group’s 48% gain trailed the Nasdaq.

On that basis, it might be said that utilities are no longer primarily defensive plays. Those holdings can drive a portfolio up the field and score solid gains.

Yet utilities still can play some pretty good defense, too.

Since the Nasdaq’s recent peak on Halloween, the tech-heavy index has turned in a scary minus-19% performance.

Meanwhile, gas utilities corrected just 4%. And electric utilities shaved off 9%.

The gas sector’s 4% dip is a classic defensive-play performance. (Though it should be noted that defensive plays generally can’t beat cash.)

The changed scene for utilities doesn’t mean the best of both worlds for income investors. Stocks in the group can differ radically.

Among the seven electric utility stocks with an EPS Rank of 85 or better, one offers no dividend, a second pays a stingy 0.9% yield, and a third’s 8.1% payout exceeds its current and projected annual earnings.

Stocks slumped at the opening. Earnings disappointments, rethinking expectations for a Fed rate cut and soft economic data gave markets little incentive to take risks ahead of Wednesday’s Fed decision.

The NYSE composite was down 0.6% at 10:19 a.m. ET. The Nasdaq was down 0.2%, the Dow 0.4% and the S&P 500. Initial volume appeared higher than in Monday’s opening.

The Fed funds futures bias toward a potential rate cut Wednesday shifted lower, with 86% of participants banking on a short-term rate trim to 4.5%. That’s down from a 98% bias at Monday’s close.

But those odds might be turning higher after a much weaker-than-expected decline in consumer confidence.

Stocks had been paring losses ahead of the 10 a.m. ET release, but edged back down on the gloomy sentiment.

Earlier, a survey of 20 major cities by Standard & Poor’s Case-Schiller Index showed home prices were down 4.4% in the year through August. Ten of those cities showed 12-month price declines above 5%, the fastest decline since 1991. Tampa led the train wreck, with a 10%+ price decline. Index authors said “The fall in home prices is showing no real signs of a slowdown or turnaround.”

Energizer Holdings () tumbled 7.72 to 102.94. The company reported a 54% increase in fiscal Q4 earnings. That topped analyst estimates. Energizer reported flat sales in its namesake batteries business, as the company raised prices to offset lower volume sales. It also said it expects earnings contribution from the $1.6 billion Playtex Products acquisition to roll up slowly through 2008 and 2009. The move dropped the stock below its 10-week moving average.

Corn Products Int’l () dropped 6.28 to 42.01. The maker of corn syrup sweetener reported a 38% rise in Q3 earnings, just below expectations.

US Steel () fell 6% and Commercial Metals () sank 13% after the metals firms missed views. Other steel and metals firms retreated, including Mittal () and Schnitzer Steel ().

China-based Internet portal Sina () jumped up for a third straight session, adding 98 cents to 57.93. The stock broke out of an eight-week cup-with-handle in September. It is 28% above the base’s 45.02 buy point.

Sina rallied on strong results late Mon. by rival Sohu.com (), which climbed 6% to a new high.

9:15 a.m. ET Update: Stocks To Open Lower As Fed Meeting Starts

By Vincent Mao

Stock futures pointed to a weaker open Tuesday. Nasdaq futures dropped 12 points, S&P 500 futures lost 6 points and Dow futures 54 points.

Today marks the start of the Federal Reserve’s two-day meeting. To help relieve the pressure from the subprime turmoil, a rate cut of a 25 basis points in widely expected. The decision will be announced Wednesday.

But published speculation that maybe, just maybe, the Fed won’t cut rates Wed. may be making investors a little nervous.

Consumer confidence for Oct. will be out at 10:00 a.m. ET. Economists expect a dip to 99.5 from 99.8 in September.

Crude oil futures pulled back from record highs. The December contract lost $1.11 to $92.42 in electronic trading.

Meanwhile, the dollar rebounded from all-time lows against the euro.

Smith & Wesson () shot down 24% in pre-market trading. The gun maker pegged second-quarter earnings between 5 cents and 7 cents a share vs. views of 12 cents. Sales are expected from $69 million to $71 million. Analysts expected $82 million. Smith & Wesson also cut its full-year profit and revenue outlook.

Atheros Communications () jumped 8% in the preopen. Late Monday, the chipmaker reported a 47% rise in earnings and a 34% increase in revenue. both were above views. The company cited strong sales of its networking products.

CF Industries () grew 9% in the premarket. Late Monday, the fertilizer maker trounced views as its Q3 income surged 436% to $1.50 a share. Sales jumped 46% to $582.9 million, the best growth in many quarters.

Under Armour () reported third-quarter earnings of 40 cents a share, up 25% from a year ago and 6 cents ahead of views. Sales also came in above estimates. But the stock dropped 8% in pre-open trading.

Volcom () plunged 23% in the preopen. After the bell Monday, the apparel maker delivered third-quarter earnings above views, but gave a weak outlook. It sees Q4 income between 30 cents and 32 cents on sales of about $70 million to $73 million. Analysts expected 47 cents on sales of $82.3 million. Full-year profit is expected at $1.37 to $1.39 a share vs. estimates of $1.50.

Bank of Montreal, stung by losses and writedowns in the shaky markets of recent months, has recruited a retired New York risk specialist to sit on its board.

Until 2006, Don M. Wilson III was chief risk officer at investment bank JPMorgan Chase & Co. with responsibility for credit, equity, market and operational risk around the world, BMO said Friday in a statement announcing the move. JPMorgan Chaseis the financial giant now in the process of buying what is left of Bear Stearns,a casualty of the U.S. subprime-mortgage disaster. BMO three-month chart

Wilson, an Ohio native and Harvard graduate, began his banking career in 1973 at Chemical Bank, a predecessor to JPMorgan Chase.

In the past year, BMO has taken hits costing hundreds of millions of dollarsin once-obscure corners of the financial world such as asset-backed commercial paper. The bank’s stock price,above $70 a share last year, has plummeted to about $46 on the Toronto Stock Exchange.

“We are pleased to welcome Don to the board of directors,”BMO chairmanDavid Galloway said inthe statement. “He is a superbly qualified individual who brings a broad competence in financial markets and all aspects of risk management.

“I am confident that Don’s wealth of experience in financial institutions globally will serve the bank well.” Post a commentPeople have commented on this story Recommend this story People have recommended this story Story Tools: | | Text Size: | | Story comments (0) Sort: Most recent | First to last

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